Energy Crunch to Persist Even If Iran Peace Deal Struck Says Maersk
By Reuters | 07 May, 2026

The global shipping giant saw fuel costs rise nearly $500 million a month, eating into margins, with growing risk the war-fueled inflation will weaken the consumer demand that has kept shipping buoyant.

Shipping group Maersk warned on Thursday that the Iran war had pushed its fuel costs up by nearly $500 million a month and that the energy crisis would persist even if a peace deal was reached, sending its shares down 7%.

Freight volumes have held up, but the soaring energy costs are eating into margins, and Maersk CEO Vincent Clerc said the longer the war drags on, the greater the risk that inflation kills the consumer demand that has kept shipping buoyant.

He said the war had added roughly 3 billion Danish crowns ($472.7 million) to the company's monthly costs as bunker fuel prices surged from around $600 to just under $1,000 per metric ton.

ENERGY CRUNCH HERE TO STAY

So far Maersk has managed to recover those costs by passing them on to customers in full through contract renegotiations and spot rate increases. But Clerc cautioned that the energy crisis showed no sign of fading.

"The energy crisis does not go away the day peace comes," he told a press conference. "Oil companies I speak to ... expect it to last at minimum several more months, possibly many more months."

Maersk, which is viewed as a bellwether for global trade, still projects global container volume growth of between 2% and 4% this year but said the situation remained volatile.

Clerc told analysts on a call that demand had remained strong into April and May with the market tracking at the upper end of the guidance range or possibly slightly above.

But he said softer growth was expected in the second half of 2026, as higher energy prices fed through to inflation and consumer spending.

Shares in Maersk were down 7% at 1121 GMT, on track for their worst day in more than a year amid worries that high fuel prices and a glut of new vessel deliveries could hit profits.

PROFIT DOWN BUT BEATS FORECAST

Maersk's earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) for the January to March period were $1.73 billion, compared to a median forecast of $1.66 billion in a company-provided poll of 10 analysts, but well below the $2.71 billion reported for the same period a year ago.

The war has disrupted shipping routes after Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz to commercial traffic. The company has six ships trapped in the Gulf, a spokesperson said.

Clerc said only 2% to 3% of global container trade flows to and from the Gulf, giving the container shipping industry enough resilience to handle the strait's closure.

The bigger risk, he said, was if sustained high energy prices triggered broad inflation leading to recession and a drop in demand. He described a scenario of high costs, weak demand and overcapacity as "a dangerous cocktail".

Freight rates fell 14% in the first quarter compared to the same period a year ago, driven by a glut of new vessel deliveries, before rising sharply toward the end of the period after the outbreak of the war.

Morningstar analyst Ben Slupecki warned that overcapacity was already affecting 2026 performance and would likely have a greater impact in 2027 due to the number of ships scheduled for delivery that year.

The Middle East crisis also impacts shipping in the Red Sea, and Maersk has been rerouting vessels around Africa, away from the Suez Canal and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait as a precaution.

Clerc, however, said there had been no attacks in the Red Sea so far this year by Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthi movement, and Maersk was actively reviewing a return to the route.

"The one limiting factor is the limitation of availability of either escorts or monitoring assets from different European, U.S. or other navies to make sure that the crossing is safe," he said.

($1 = 6.3466 Danish crowns)

(Reporting by Stine Jacobsen and Jesus Calero; Editing by Terje Solsvik, Alexander Smith and Joe Bavier)