EV Surge Likely to Cut Oil Demand by Late 2027
By Reuters | 22 Jun, 2026

EV sales jumped to 26.1% of the auto market last month following the recent Iran-related oil shock, likely to trim global oil demand by up to 0.32 million barrels per day by late 2027.

A woman walks past a sign of a charging point for electric vehicles in Prague, Czech Republic March 9, 2018. REUTERS/David W Cerny

Goldman Sachs said accelerating electric vehicle adoption following a Hormuz-related oil supply shock could trim global oil demand by up to 0.32 million barrels per day by late 2027.

Global EV car sales penetration increased 3.4 percentage points, the bank said in a note, to reach 26.1% last month — its second-highest level ever.

Here are the key details:

• Goldman estimates a global oil demand hit of about 0.13 million bpd by December 2027 under its "Temporary Acceleration" scenario, which assumes regional EV penetration rates remain flat at their May 2026 levels.

• The demand loss can reach around 0.32 million bpd over the same period under the "Persistent Acceleration" scenario that assumes a regional EV penetration rates growth linear to February–May 2026 trends.

• "Most notably, two-/three-wheeler EVs comprise a majority of total EV sales in India, Vietnam, and China and can displace a sizable one-third to one-half of the fuel that a passenger car EV can," Goldman Sachs wrote.

• The bank said 12 of the world's 15 largest EV markets have seen rising penetration, with China leading gains as its rate increased by 11.4 percentage points.

(Reporting by Sumit Saha in Bengaluru; Editing by Joyjeet Das)